Ahmad Afandi was quoted in The Edge Malaysia, 20 August 2024
by Tan Zhai Yun / The Edge Malaysia
Many Malaysians remember the massive floods of December 2021. Either they were caught in the rising waters, or they knew someone who was.
The few days of continuous rainfall resulted in the evacuation of around 400,000 people, triggered a debris flow that wiped out homes in Hulu Langat, and caused houses in some neighbourhoods to be flooded up to the roof.
Ahmad Afandi, fellow at the Institute of Strategic & International Studies Malaysia (Isis), was not personally affected by the floods, but his family members were. “Now every time I see the rain, I feel anxious. I want to go home earlier,” he says.
The disaster occurred because of unus ually extreme rainfall, and some say, overdevelopment and logging, which triggered landslides in some areas. The Department of Statistics Malaysia estimated that losses from the flood amounted to RM6.1 billion.
Unfortunately, such events may become more common if climate change continues unchecked, and this appears to be the direction the world is taking. According to the latest estimates by the United Nations Environment Programme, even if current pledges under the Paris Agreement are met, we are headed for a 2.5°C to 2.9°C warmer world.
That translates into higher temperatures, more intense rainfall and dry spells, flooding, sea level rise, heat stress, lower crop yield and many other related effects in Malaysia, according to its fourth national communication report to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The world is now 1.1°C warmer than pre-industrial levels, and the last decade was recorded as the warmest in history. The fastest sea level rise and smallest summer Arctic ice were also recorded in the last few years, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.
Already, the frequent flooding, intense rainfall and hot spells in recent months have Malaysians on edge.
The problem, however, is that many people still do not link the environmental changes that they observe with climate change. Adaptation to the impacts of climate change, many of which are here to stay, is also insufficient. Most of the attention is currently on climate change mitigation efforts like reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
“When you talk about climate action in Malaysia, a lot of people will generally say they want to contribute to mitigate climate change impacts, and what they do is to recycle more, use solar panels and practise urban farming. But they don’t understand that these actions can have very little effect on [coping with] climate change impacts,” says Ahmad Afandi.
He emphasised that while these actions are not unimportant, much of the climate change impacts currently are caused by historical emissions, which means they cannot be reversed easily and immediately with mitigation actions.
“I work with some non-governmental organisations that work with the public housing community on how to recycle and adopt a green lifestyle. But what they actually need is an air-conditioner because it’s so hot right now,” says Ahmad Afandi.
“Some cities have a climate action plan, where they talk about how they’re vulnerable to sea level rise and flooding. But most of the plan talks about recycling, energy efficiency and managing waste, with only a small part talking about adaptation. They believe that if they reduce emissions, they won’t be vulnerable to disasters. But that’s not the case.”
This is the reasoning behind the suggestion that developing countries such as Malaysia, which contribute less than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, invest more in adaptation efforts instead of only focusing on net-zero emissions and mitigation. This is also because, as a developing country with limited resources, Malaysia is more vulnerable to climate change impacts.
“The emissions of the past half century have pretty much locked in a 2°C warming of average global temperatures. We already know with great certainty that the higher latitudes to the north and south will warm to a greater extent than the equator,” says Gary William Theseira, adjunct associate professor at the Asia School of Business, who has more than a decade of experience in climate change policy development in government.
“This does not mean, however, that we will be spared the impact of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, storms and floods, droughts or slow onset events such as sea level rise. We have no alternative but to implement highly strategic plans to minimise loss and damage, while also taking every opportunity to shift away from fossil fuels.”
Tell the public what is at stake
Anecdotal observations of how the climate has changed are common, especially among those who work outdoors and with natural resources. But even urban folk would have noticed the impacts.
“Anyone who lives in a home that is roofed with concrete tiles is already experiencing an increase in the number of leaks during severe thunderstorms, as strong winds can blow rainwater backwards between successive layers of tiles and into the attic spaces, soaking through plaster ceilings and creating unsightly water marks,” shares Theseira.
Many of the reports and research on climate change impacts, current and projected, are couched in scientific language and published in long reports. Some are technical and the data is not localised, which makes it challenging even for companies to access.
The latter is a problem identified by financial institutions, which are required to undergo climate risk assessments by Bank Negara Malaysia. The central bank, through the Joint Committee on Climate Change, has been trying to address this by creating a data catalogue for climate and environmental data.
Awareness on emergency preparedness and climate mitigation and adaptive measures should be socialised and implemented by the government as fast and as widely as possible to make a difference.” – Hamizah, Greenpeace Malaysia
Perhaps more importantly, the risks that the public will face must be communicated, whether through the media or nationwide campaigns.
“With the increase of disaster events and their severity, Malaysians would face these as the norm going forward. Awareness on emergency preparedness, climate mitigation and adaptive measures should be socialised and implemented by the government as fast and as widely as possible to make a difference,” says Hamizah Shamsudeen, Greenpeace Malaysia’s climate & energy campaigner.
It must be noted that it is difficult to attribute extreme weather events to climate change, although scientists have been studying the link through climate attribution science.
For instance, scientists from World Weather Attribution said that the record-breaking temperatures in April across Asia were made worse by climate change. Malaysia was also affected by this extreme weather, with at least 45 heat-related illnesses and two deaths reported in that month.
The Malaysian Meteorological Department issued heat warnings and attributed the weather conditions from March to May to the inter-monsoon period, and after May to the Southwest Monsoon. There was no mention of climate change.
A national adaptation plan is crucial
Malaysia’s approach to adapting to climate change will be addressed in the National Adaptation Plan (MyNAP), which is expected to be finalised by 2026. The MyNAP project is supported by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) and financed by the German government and Green Climate Fund.
MyNAP will focus on the five priority areas of public health, agriculture and food security, forestry and biodiversity, water resources and security, and infrastructure and cities. It will highlight strategies to manage the effects of climate change in these areas, and cover heat action plans and early warning systems.
The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability is coordinating MyNAP, supported by the National Water Research Institute Malaysia (NAHRIM), which is collaborating with global experts through the NAP Global Network.
The NAP is a complicated plan. It has to consider current and projected climate risks, and requires collaboration with many stakeholders, due to the varied solutions that must be deployed.
The solutions could include planting more heat-resistant crop varieties, improving early warning systems for disasters, building flood barriers to ward off sea level rise, and restoring mangroves and wetlands to reduce the severity of floods and coastal erosion.
Due to changes in the environment and updates in climate science, NAP has to stay current. In the UK, the Climate Change Act compels the government to produce a Climate Change Risk Assessment every five years.
Funding is also a challenge. Generally, climate mitigation — involving renewable energy, electric vehicles and carbon capture technologies — attracts more attention since the solutions can generate financial returns and are seen as business opportunities.
These challenges are acknowledged by GIZ, which shares that delays in preparing NAP stemmed from coordination challenges during the pandemic, limited financial and technical resources, and the need for robust data and perspectives from stakeholders.
It is essential to integrate climate science with socioeconomic data, such as population density, economic activities and infrastructure to provide a comprehensive understanding of vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities. ” – Saufi, GIZ
According to GIZ, MyNAP will emphasise enhancing public awareness and community engagement, as well as climate data-driven actions. NAHRIM’s research on flood risk management and water resource sustainability, for instance, will guide the development of resilient infrastructure.
“The MyNAP project includes establishing an integrated national climate risks database, which will provide accessible and reliable information on projected climate impacts, vulnerable areas and recommended adaptation measures. This will enable stakeholders to make informed decisions,” says Saufi Aiman, senior project manager at GIZ Malaysia.
“Also, the project aims to create awareness in local communities, which will enhance understanding and encourage proactive measures, addressing topics such as sustainable agricultural practices, community-based risk management, and health precautions against stress and vector-borne diseases.”
Addressing concerns about data quality, Saufi says MyNAP will enhance the granularity of data collected and collaborate with local research institutions to generate high-resolution climate models and impact studies.
“The project will support establishing a network of automated weather stations and utilising remote sensing technologies to enhance real-time monitoring of climate variables,” he explains.
“It is essential to integrate climate science with socioeconomic data, such as population density, economic activities and infrastructure to provide a comprehensive understanding of vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities.”
In the future, advanced analytical tools such as artificial intelligence can be employed to analyse large data sets and project future scenarios, Saufi adds.
Avoiding mal-adaptation
Mal-adaptation can occur when actions taken to supposedly adapt to climate change result in more harm instead. For instance, spending millions on flood mitigation infrastructure will be a wasted effort if uncontrolled deforestation continues to occur upstream and natural flood plains and wetlands are destroyed.
The NAP can put in place a platform for authorities, whether it’s state or federal government, disaster relief agencies, NAHRIM and the Department of Environment to engage with private landowners and state land managers.” – Theseira, Asia School of Business
In these cases, “maybe more money should be pumped into restoring the water catchment area”, says Ahmad Afandi.
Building a flood barrier without proper planning could also cause the overflowing river water to spill over to another area instead. Ensuring that the adaptation actions are effective and address the root cause of the issue is therefore crucial. This can be done by using MyNAP as a platform to engage various stakeholders, suggests Theseira.
“The NAP can put in place a platform for authorities, whether it’s state or federal government, disaster relief agencies, NAHRIM and the Department of Environment to engage with private landowners and state land managers,” he says.
If a piece of land is identified to be at high risk of flooding, the stakeholders can jointly decide what kind of activities are allowed there. For instance, “if it’s a hazardous [materials recycling centre] that has engine oil, it might contaminate water when the flood comes. We can’t have that there,” says Theseira. In this instance, a river basin management plan can then be developed.
The stakeholders must do the same to ensure there is enough water supply in a drought, and manage water supply contamination when river levels drop.
“Hospitals, schools and universities need water, followed by businesses and the public. How can the plan minimise the impact to all sectors?” says Theseira. This could be outlined in a water management road map.
Most [climate action plans] talk about recycling, energy efficiency and managing waste, with only a small part talking about adaptation.” – Afandi, Isis
Additionally, MyNAP must take into account human rights, says Greenpeace’s Hamizah. Solutions like protecting forest and oceans serve the dual purpose of mitigating and adapting to climate change. Such measures should be prioritised, in her view, rather than relying on carbon capture and storage or carbon credits.
Meanwhile, to fund adaptation action, incentives could be introduced to encourage participation from the private sector.
In flood-prone areas, Ahmad Afandi suggests that developers could contribute to a flood levy. The money is then pooled to finance adaptation efforts.
“Another way is if you don’t want to pay so much, you can implement green initiatives, like making sure the run-off from floods are captured … That will incentivise them to do more.”
In fact, the view that adaptation measures cannot yield financial returns is a myth that the interviewees are eager to dispel.
It is needed to prevent the worst impacts of climate change from destroying assets and causing harm. The economic losses from the December 2021 floods are cited as an example of how failure to adapt has a financial impact on the private and public sectors.
“I have cited the SMART Tunnel as an adaptation measure that has not only paid for itself, but that continues to generate returns for the developers. Thinking innovatively about other adaptation programmes, such as retention and water storage lakes, as well as coastal defence structures such as mangrove buffers and wetlands, can help recover most, if not all, of the investment in these activities,” says Theseira.
This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on August 12, 2024 – August 18, 2024
