Thomas Daniel was quoted in South China Morning Post, 2 September 2024
- With tensions rising in the South China Sea and the Myanmar crisis still unresolved, Malaysia’s leadership will be closely scrutinised
By Maria Siow
Malaysia’s coming chairmanship of Asean in 2025 will test its diplomatic skills, as experts argue its evolving stance on the Israeli-Gaza war and strengthening ties with China could challenge the bloc’s unity.
Tough issues are sure to crop up during its tenure, said Thomas Daniel, a senior fellow at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies in Malaysia.
“Malaysia will require no small amounts of deft, proactive diplomacy to manage these issues in a way that positively pushes the needle forward where possible, avoids any kind of regression, and emphasises both Asean’s interests and cohesion,” he told This Week in Asia.
Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has expressed confidence in Malaysia’s ability to host the Asean Summit, with Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan outlining the three pillars for its chairmanship as security and politics; the economy; and socio-culture.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ chair, currently held by Laos, rotates annually around the 10 member states in English alphabetical order.
But concerns are mounting about the bloc’s cohesion amid its struggles dealing with the Myanmar crisis and South China Sea disputes.
Joanne Lin Weiling, an associate senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, noted the traditional role Malaysia has played in promoting regional diplomacy.
“However, the ongoing conflict in Gaza has led Malaysia to shift its focus more towards the Middle East, adopting a more cautious stance towards the US and other allies of Israel,” she said. This shift has been accompanied by stronger ties with China and interest in Brics.
Malaysia has shown robust support for Palestinians, with Anwar calling Hamas “freedom fighters” and rejecting US demands to cut ties.
The country’s recent application to join Brics was welcomed by Beijing, which said it seeks “like-minded partners”.
“These shifting strategic priorities are likely to influence Malaysia’s approach to major regional issues,” Lin said, suggesting the nation might prioritise cooperation with the Middle East and advocate for stronger language on related issues within Asean.
“Through such priorities, Prime Minister Anwar will be able to leverage regional platforms to boost his domestic standing,” she noted, adding that Malaysia is likely to welcome initiatives with China and Brics members, including Russia.
Despite all this, Lin believes Malaysia’s chairmanship won’t drastically alter Asean’s relations with the US or the West, as the chair’s influence is limited in the consensus-based bloc. As the current country coordinator for Asean’s relations with China and a South China Sea claimant state, Malaysia has “a vested interest” in speeding up code of conduct negotiations, she said.
Asean Secretary General Kao Kim Hourn announced plans in June to accelerate talks with China, eyeing a code to mitigate conflict risks in contested waters by 2026. “However, if Malaysia is perceived as favouring China, it may face challenges balancing the interests of other claimant states, such as the Philippines and Vietnam,” Lin said – further highlighting Malaysia’s likely push for stronger action on Myanmar given its vocal stance on human rights issues.
Former Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah was a vocal advocate for a stronger Asean response to Myanmar and previously met with representatives of the National Unity Government, a shadow administration that opposes the ruling military junta.
Dedi Dinarto, an associate at strategic advisory firm Global Counsel, said Malaysia’s push for closer ties with China could hinder its ability to advocate for a strong regional stance on the South China Sea conflict. Following Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Malaysia in June, Anwar referred to China as a “true friend”, while Li hailed the relationship as a model for bilateral ties in the region.
China has been Malaysia’s top trading partner since 2009, with bilateral trade reaching US$98.8 billion last year, accounting for 17 per cent of the Southeast Asian nation’s total trade.
While Malaysia’s Asean chairmanship and interest in Brics both reflect its aim to promote economic and political cooperation, Dinarto said the objectives and dynamics of the two differ significantly.
Chairing Asean allows Malaysia to reaffirm its role as a key regional player after the years of political upheaval that followed the Umno-led Barisan Nasional coalition being ousted in the 2018 elections. By contrast, joining Brics represents a strategic move to strengthen ties with rising powers like China, India, and Russia amid rising geopolitical tensions between Beijing and the West.
Malaysia’s leadership will be tested as it carefully navigates between pursuing its national interests and fulfilling its responsibilities
Dedi Dinarto, strategic advisory associate
“Overall, Malaysia’s leadership will be tested as it carefully navigates between pursuing its national interests and fulfilling its responsibilities as next year’s chair,” Dinarto said.
Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations in the US, noted that while Malaysia “may make for a decent host”, Anwar’s challenging domestic political landscape could undermine his foreign policy effectiveness within Asean and beyond. He said Malaysia is not positioned to accomplish more than previous Asean chairs, citing both internal challenges and the overall weakness of the bloc.
Domestic challenges for Anwar include attracting investment, implementing economic reforms and addressing long-standing corruption issues, Kurlantzick said in a June blog post for the Council on Foreign Relations.
“In recent years, it [Asean] has done so little on key issues like Myanmar and the South China Sea that it has lost much credibility as a regional organisation, regardless of who is chair,” he said.
This article first published in South China Morning Post, 2 September 2024
