Angeline Tan was quoted in South China Morning Post, 26 October 2024
As Asean chair, Malaysia and its prime minister face the daunting challenge of bridging deep divides over critical regional issues
By Joseph Sipalan
As Malaysia prepares to assume the Asean chair next year, the nation will face two pressing issues: the South China Sea dispute and the ongoing conflict in Myanmar. Both challenges will require a delicate balance, and expectations are high for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim to guide the bloc towards unity.
At the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Vientiane on October 9, Anwar spoke about how vital dialogue and cooperation was to shield the region from external interference.
“As global tensions continue to rise and polarisation appears to prevail over integration, cracks and divisions within Asean run the risk of being exploited to the detriment of its centrality and cohesiveness,” he warned.
Analysts believe Malaysia is well-positioned to restore Asean’s centrist orientation. The country has experience mediating regional conflicts and has taken leadership roles in significant global forums such as the Non-Aligned Movement and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation.
“Malaysia has the advantage of having a more balanced approach and ties with both sides,” said Collins Chong Yew Keat, a foreign affairs analyst at the University of Malaya, referring to the intricate dynamics of maintaining good relations with China and the West.
For years, Asean has struggled to reach consensus on the South China Sea. China’s influence is seen to weigh heavily on member states such as Cambodia and Laos, which have received investments worth billions of US dollars from the superpower to help develop their infrastructure and economies.
Beijing claims nearly the entire South China Sea – a crucial waterway for US$3 trillion in annual global trade that is thought to be rich in oil, gas and fisheries. These claims overlap with the territorial rights of Asean members Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, as well as Taiwan.
In Malaysia, concerns about China’s growing influence have intensified following Anwar’s overtures for increased economic cooperation and the country’s inclusion on Thursday as a partner in the China-led Brics grouping.
“He [Anwar] has created a perception that Malaysia is now taking a side in the US-China rivalry,” said Tunku Mohar Tunku Mokhtar, a geopolitical analyst at the International Islamic University of Malaysia.
Despite these tensions, Anwar has consistently downplayed fears surrounding China, referring to the nation as a “true friend” and asserting that its regional dominance should not incite panic – even as his administration remains committed to attracting US and Western investments amid ongoing trade and technology battles with China.
The Malaysian leader has actively courted Chinese investments, having made two official visits to China last year and hosting Chinese Premier Li Qiang in June to commemorate 50 years of diplomatic relations.
During Li’s visit, the two nations agreed to initiate bilateral talks on the South China Sea – an agreement that had been stalled on the Malaysian side for years.
While Anwar advocates for dialogue, he also cautions against involving external parties in the maritime dispute, particularly in light of recent clashes between China and the Philippines. After a series of confrontations between the two nation’s coastguards, the Philippines has conducted joint patrols in the South China Sea with the United States, Japan and Australia.
Rather than a pivot towards China, analysts contend that Malaysia is maintaining a policy of diplomatic pragmatism, cultivating friendly relations with all parties while pursuing its national interests.
“The description that Anwar is shifting to China is too simplistic and narrow,” said Abdul Rahman Yaacob, a research fellow with the Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia programme.
“Former prime minister Najib Razak had close relations with China and even acquired Chinese warships. Malaysia’s bilateral talks with China should not be seen in isolation. Even the Philippines has engaged China on the South China Sea issue through bilateral meetings.”
Despite perceptions of its tilt towards China, Malaysia has maintained that it will not cede its sovereign rights over territorial waters in the South China Sea.
Deputy Foreign Minister Mohamad Alamin reiterated in parliament on Wednesday that Malaysia would “continue to assert its firm stance on the South China Sea issue” while seeking constructive solutions as Asean chair.
Asean Secretary General Kao Kim Hourn announced at the summit in Laos that a code of conduct between the bloc and China regarding the South China Sea is expected to be finalised next year. However, achieving consensus will be a significant challenge for Malaysia.
As chair, Malaysia will have the authority to set the agenda and convene stakeholder meetings, but ultimately, the individual members must decide their positions.
“Any progress on the South China Sea will require buy-in from all Asean members and China, which will be difficult given the long-standing distrust surrounding the issue,” warned Angeline Tan, an analyst with the Institute of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia.
On the other hand, peace in Myanmar may prove a more attainable objective for Malaysia during its Asean chairmanship, particularly as the junta faces increasing losses against rebel forces.
“Malaysia’s best bet is to set the framework for Asean to engage the Myanmar junta meaningfully so that a peaceful transfer of power can take place in Myanmar,” Lowy Institute’s Abdul Rahman said.
As Malaysia steps into the role, the eyes of the region – and the world – will be watching closely, hopeful that it can steer Asean through these turbulent waters towards a more unified future.
This article first published in South China Morning Post, 26 October 2024
