How inflation erodes cash transfers and what to do about it
18 December 2024
Ugo Gentilini, Hrishikesh TMM Iyengar and Giorgia Valleriani with Sheraz Aziz, Hana Rakhma Arimbi, Jusaine Lis Miranda Nogueira, María Angélica Trujillo, and Calvin Cheng Read in PDF EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The indexation of benefits, or anchoring cash transfers to inflation levels, represents a key and underexplored dimension of the adaptive social protection (ASP) agenda. While considerable…
Policy insights into Budget 2025: fiscal reforms, social protection, energy and climate action
28 October 2024
Economics, Trade, and Regional Integration: Calvin Cheng, Hanson Chong, Jaideep Singh and Qarrem Kassim Climate, Environment and Energy: Ahmad Afandi, Dhana Raj Markandu, Kieran Li Nair and Zayana Zaikariah October 2024 Read in PDF Snapshot The key initiatives announced as part of Budget 2025 across critical economic, social and environmental policy areas are listed below.…
BFM podcast: Top 5 at 5 - Malaysians off to work
04 September 2024
Calvin Cheng was interviewed by BFM89.9 on 2 September 2024 Produced by: Dashran Yohan, Alena Nadia, Sharaad Kuttan, Lim Sue Ann, Tee Shiao Eek Presented by: Lee Chwi Lynn The Malaysian labour force has boomed to an all-time high of 17.15 million people in the second quarter of 2024. We are joined by Calvin Cheng,…
BFM podcast: Top 5 at 5 - The government's war for digital sovereignty
15 August 2024
Calvin Cheng was interviewed by BFM89.9 on 12 August 2024 Produced by: Sudais Ferhard, Alena Nadia, Dashran Yohan, Alia Zefri Presented by: Lee Chwi Lynn, Lim Sue Ann The Malaysian Trades Union Congress has urged the government to review a new minimum wage for the private sector, noting that the last review was two years…
Policy issues in advancing social and economic progress
24 July 2024
Presentation by: Calvin Cheng and Lee Min Hui Date: 29 July 2024 Auditorium, ISIS Malaysia Presented at: Creating fiscal space for constructing Malaysia’s social protection floor Download presentation slide (PDF)
Understanding Malaysia’s decline in PISA scores: causes and consequences
16 July 2024
by Sofea Azahar and Calvin Cheng, June 2024 Read in PDF About the contributors Sofea Azahar is a former analyst at the Institute of Strategic & International Studies (ISIS) Malaysia. Her research interests centred on development economics, with an emphasis on human capital development and the implications of educational inequality. She holds an MSc in Development…
Policy design considerations for Malaysia’s Progressive Wage Policy
12 July 2024
Presentation by: Calvin Cheng Date: 12 July 2024 Auditorium, ISIS Malaysia Presented at: Malaysia’s Progressive Wage Policy Download presentation slide (PDF)
Niaga Spotlight: Cradle-to-Grave Care Economy - Investment for National Development
05 July 2024
The Care Economy has great economic growth potential for Malaysia. Valuing Unpaid Care Work (UCW) which includes unpaid care and domestic work performed primarily by women, could potentially contribute RM379 billion to national GDP. Malaysia stands to enable 3.2 million additional workers to engage in paid employment, which would unlock 4.9% in GDP growth just…
Building a cradle-to-grave care economy for Malaysia
12 June 2024
Written by Lee Min Hui,Calvin Cheng Kah Weng, Shazana Agha and Anis Farid With contributions from Prof Datuk Dr Norma Mansor, Dr Teoh Ai Hua and Sofea Azahar, May 2024 Read in PDF About the contributors Lee Min Hui is a senior analyst in the Social Policy and National Integration programme at the Institute of…
Interactive: The future of work
11 May 2024
Calvin Cheng and Harris Zainul was quoted in the Star, 01 May 2024 By FATIMAH ZAINAL and VIVIEN LIM THE workforce of the future will be older and increasingly female but while they will be more educated, they should forget about degrees as the future of work will prioritise adaptability over any diploma, says an expert. Institute…
Slim prospects, harsh realities: Asia’s youth employment crisis
03 May 2024
Fellow Calvin Cheng talks to CNA Insider, weighing in on the challenges youth face in the job market and why the competency gap leads to higher youth unemployment rates compared with adults. They are also sensitive to economic cycles, meaning whenever there’s a slowdown, the youth are hit worst. Full coverage below.
BFM podcast: Important considerations for Malaysia’s progressive wage policy
03 April 2024
Calvin Cheng was interviewed by BFM89.9 for the show Beyond the Ballot Box on 2 April 2024 Produced by: Dashran Yohan Presented by: Dashran Yohan The government of Malaysia will be launching the Progressive Wage Policy voluntary pilot programme in June. The policy draws inspiration from Singapore’s Progressive Wage Model, albeit with some key differences.…
Malaysia’s progressive wage policy
25 March 2024
Malaysia’s progressive wage policy A guide to policy design considerations for effective implementation by Calvin Cheng and Kevin Zhang, March 2024. Read in PDF About the contributors Calvin Cheng is a fellow in the Economics, Trade and Regional Integration programme at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) Malaysia. His research interests span issues…
Reintroducing GST a question of when not if
26 November 2023
Calvin Cheng speaks about the GST on TV3 Nightline. The goods & services tax (GST) can have wide-ranging benefits for the nation's public revenue, fiscal space, and tax compliance. Institute of Strategic & International Studies (ISIS) Malaysia’s senior analyst Calvin Cheng emphasised that in the future, re-introducing the GST at a lower revenue-neutral rate of…
BFM podcast: APEC, trade benefits for all
17 November 2023
Calvin Cheng was interviewed by BFM89.9 on 17 November 2023 Produced by: Anwar Mahbob Presented by: Wong Shou Ning, Keith Kam The APEC summit, which has a membership of 21 countries, is ongoing in San Francisco. As a bloc, its members produce around 11.4 trillion US Dollars in exports. Calvin Cheng, Senior Analyst in the…
Post-Covid-19 recovery and quest for ‘good jobs’
01 November 2023
Author Calvin Cheng from ISIS Malaysia discusses the structural inequalities that have widened as a result of the pandemic and how, if left unchecked, will pose long-term consequences for economic development, social mobility and socio- political stability. Within this, the author shows how the demographics most affected were younger, lesser educated and women. An equitable…
Unpacking Budget 2024: navigating fiscal realities and policy priorities
26 October 2023
Key takeaways Budget 2024 reflects a negative fiscal impulse, with a lower allocation compared with the projected expenditure for 2023. MSMEs to benefit from RM44 billion allocated for loans, credit guarantees and digitalisation grants, with a focus on green sectors. However, the newly proposed capital gains tax on unlisted shares might impact MSME and start-up…
Why we should welcome back GST
02 October 2023
Options to diversify tax base limited, nation needs funds to turbocharge development The goods and services tax (GST) was first introduced in 2015 and repealed in 2018. At the time, we predicted that a similar consumption tax of its type would eventually return. Fast forward five years, three different governments and a pandemic later: the…
My Say: Ageing Malaysia must build cradle-to-grave care economy now
28 June 2023
This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on June 17, 2024 - June 23, 202 By Norma Mansor, Lee Min Hui and Calvin Cheng / The Edge Malaysia Malaysia is ageing at a pace far quicker than many other countries have in the past. By 2040, the country is set to see a…
Making trade, investment work for Malaysia
10 September 2022
Globalisation must benefit local firms, help them move up value chain AS anxieties over Covid-19 fade, Malaysia has sought to rebuild the links shattered by two years of pandemic lockdowns. This means that trade, investment and regional integration are once again at the forefront. In January, Malaysia ratified the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), with…
Labour: Hard decisions and institutional reforms needed to tackle the labour quagmire
28 August 2022
Calvin Cheng was quoted in The Edge Malaysia. This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on August 22, 2022 - August 28, 2022. by Chong Pooi Koon, 25 August 2022 The poor working and living conditions of migrant workers in Malaysia have come under the spotlight in recent years as the focus on environmental, social…
On the question of labour: work-life balance (or lack thereof) in Malaysia
01 August 2022
Calvin Cheng was quoted in The Vibes. Solutions to work-life balance in Malaysia remain a distant utopia, at the cost of the overall well-being of Malaysians by Kalash Nanda Kumar, 29 July 2022 THE English economist, John Maynard Keynes, predicted in 1930 that by the end of the century, human beings would unlock such massive technological feats…
‘Center of the global battery industry’: Samsung builds $1.3 billion EV battery plant in Malaysia
27 July 2022
Calvin Cheng was quoted in Forbes. by Ralph Jennings, 27 July 2022 Samsung Electronics’ battery arm, Samsung SDI, has broken ground on a $1.3 billion factory in Malaysia to take advantage of the Southeast Asian country’s solid yet inexpensive tech climate and vie for a place in the growing global market for electric vehicle batteries. Samsung…
‘Difficult to believe’: Biden’s economy plan a tough sell in Asia
20 May 2022
Calvin Cheng was quoted in Al Jazeera. US president’s arrival in Seoul will mark start of effort to promote new Indo-Pacific Economic Framework in region by Andrew Haffner, 20 May 2022 Phnom Penh, Cambodia – US President Joe Biden’s arrival in Seoul on Friday marks not only the start of his first visit while in office to South…
Falling ringgit has no immediate impact on low- income earners, say economists
05 May 2022
Calvin Cheng was quoted in the Malaysian Insight. by Raevathi Supramaniam, 5 May 2022 THE deteriorating ringgit is unlikely to have an immediate impact on the livelihoods of the low- and middle-income earners but continued fall could cause inflation to escalate, economists said. While currency depreciation would cause see the cost of imported goods to go…
Crisis of inequality: Covid-19’s long-lasting economic impacts
20 April 2022
Introduction: Malaysia after the pandemic The Covid-19 crisis has been the single largest economic disruption in modern Malaysian history. Since the first case was discovered in January 2020, the country has endured at least four major waves of infections and recurrent impositions of strict measures to contain it (Figure 1). These containment measures – coupled…
My Say: Policy failures and lessons from the Covid crisis
20 March 2022
by Calvin Cheng and Harris Zainul / The Edge Malaysia Policymakers around the world grappling with Covid-19 have learnt a harsh lesson in the last two years. This is no less true in Malaysia. Since 2020, Malaysia has recorded about 3.5 million cases of Covid-19 — this is equivalent to one case for every 10…
Focus in continuity: roundtable series | digital economy
07 March 2022
What role does the digital economy play in supporting Malaysia’s development? How can international and regional cooperation be strengthened through effective policy making? Calvin Cheng moderates a roundtable discussion on the digital economy with Dr Jasmine Begum, Director of Legal, Corporate & Government Affairs for ASEAN and New Markets, Dr Rachel Gong, Senior Research Associate…
Strengthening digital trade and digitalisation in Malaysia
26 February 2022
Presentation by: Calvin Cheng Date: 24 February 2022 Presented at: ISIS-Google report: Malaysia’s digital economy Download Presentation Slide (PDF)
Strengthening digital trade and digitalisation in Malaysia
24 February 2022
Strengthening digital trade and digitalisation in Malaysia: Challenges and pathways towards a resilient digital economy post-Covid-19 By Calvin Cheng and Juita Mohamad The growth of digital technologies and the digitalisation of the global economy have led to lower costs and efficiency gains for businesses and consumers. For digital-enabled trade, technological innovations like e-commerce platforms reduce search…
Malaysia eyes China 40 years after it 'looked east' to Japan
15 February 2022
Calvin Cheng was quoted in Nikkei Asia. by P Prem Kumar and CK Tan, 15 February 2022 KUALA LUMPUR/SHANGHAI -- When engineers and mechanics at Malaysia's largest car manufacturer need a breather, they head to the "dojo." The Japanese word, which typically describes a hall for practicing martial arts, lends an air of gravitas to what is…
BFM podcast: Should we raise the minimum wage sooner?
10 February 2022
Calvin Cheng was interviewed by BFM89.9 on 7 February 2022. Produced by: Evening Edition Presented by: Lee Chwi Lynn, Sharmilla Ganesan The Malaysian Trades Union Congress has urged for the government to raise the minimum wage by the second quarter of the year, instead of by the end of 2022. This is in contrast to the…
Covid-19 in Malaysia: Socioeconomic impacts of Covid 19 in Malaysia and prospects for recovery
08 February 2022
This guest lecture is part of the Global Business Strategy course in the Arshad Ayub Graduate Business School at Universiti Teknologi MARA Shah Alam Presentation by: Calvin Cheng Date: 29 January 2022 (Online webinar) Presented at: University Teknologi MARA Global Business Strategy class Download Presentation Slide (PDF)
Socioeconomic impacts of Covid-19 in Malaysia
27 January 2022
Publication: National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR)’s Asia Policy journal This article explores the wide-randing macroeconomic and socioeconomic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic since its arrival in Malaysia in early-2020, including its effects on Malaysia's economic growth, development, and labour markets. The article also analyses Malaysia's economic responses and stimulus packages, and concludes with a brief…
BFM podcast: 10k household income by 2025?
06 October 2021
Calvin Cheng was interviewed by BFM89.9 on 6 October 2021. Produced by: Arleen Webber Presented by: Wong Shou Ning, Philip See, Shazana Mokhtar Is raising the average household income to 10,000 ringgit per month by 2025 realistic? Calvin Cheng from ISIS provides a reality check, his perspective on minimum wage, and social protection goals under the…
Experts: Raising minimum wage, median earning better targets for 12MP than RM10,000 average income by 2025
01 October 2021
Calvin Cheng was quoted in Malay Mail. by Keertan Ayamany, 1 October 2021 KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 1 — Experts polled by Malay Mail have argued that the national average household income is not a good indicator for measuring the wellbeing of Malaysian families, and the government should instead highlight objectives that are more inclusive of…
RMK12 - Ini suara anak muda
27 September 2021
Senior analyst Calvin Cheng and senior researcher Tengku Nur Qistina were on air to discuss youth perspectives and agency in Malaysia's recovery efforts, ahead of the unveiling of the 12th Malaysia Plan. This interview first aired on Astro Awani on 27 September 2021.
How will Malaysia survive the Covid-19 economic crisis? The answer may be from lessons learned in the past
20 September 2021
Calvin Cheng was quoted in Malay Mail. by Keertan Ayamany, 15 September 2021 KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 15 — Like most other countries, Malaysia has gone through and recovered from several financial crises, leaving a wealth of experience for its current leaders to draw from. What everybody needs to keep in mind though is that the…
Economists predict bigger budget to fund recovery, welfare
19 September 2021
Calvin Cheng was quoted in the Malaysian Insight. by Raevathi Supramaniam, 16 September 2021 PUTRAJAYA is likely to announce an expansionary budget for 2022 as the country moves towards economic recovery amid the lingering Covid-19 threat, economists said. They said a bigger budget is necessary to address poverty arising from the epidemic and food and job…
Pandemic pushes millions of Asians into poverty
14 September 2021
Calvin Cheng was quoted in Het Financieele Dagblad (FD). by Ate Hoekstra, 9 September 2021 Southeast Asia has been prospering economically for the past two decades. But the tide has turned because of corona. According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the pandemic is believed to have pushed between 75 million and 80 million Asians into extreme poverty. In…
Shaming Covid-19 aid seekers, or when the poor in Malaysia don’t fit the stereotype
21 July 2021
Calvin Cheng was quoted in Malay Mail. by Syed Jaymal Zahiid, 21 July 2021 KUALA LUMPUR, July 21 — While the informal #benderaputih movement to help to the sections of the country most in need of assistance was lauded by many, some responded cynically and disparaged the humanitarian campaign. These people derided the movement where…
PEMULIH: Fasa Pemulihan Negara
05 July 2021
With Harris Zainul and Calvin Cheng - 5 July 2021 BernamaTV’s Ruang Bicara discusses the mental, economic and social toll of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the effects of the government’s PEMULIH programme.
Trends in Malaysia’s future of work
27 June 2021
by Calvin Cheng and Harris Zainul Publication: Chinese on Journal of China-ASEAN Studies (Volume 2, 2021) Download as PDF
Policies for the future of Malaysia's youth
25 June 2021
This presentation provides a brief overview of COVID-19's unequal economic impacts on Malaysia's youth and outlines policy areas for the future of Malaysia's youth. Presentation by: Calvin Cheng Date: 25 June 2021 Presented at: Merdeka Centre Youth Empowerment for Malaysia 2021 Online Webinar Series on "Post COVID-19 Malaysia: Policies for Youth Economic Development" Download Presentation Slide…
BFM Podcast: The COVID-19 crisis: Is Malaysia Losing Its Middle Class?
22 June 2021
Produced by: Sim Wie Boon Presented by: Khoo Hsu Chuang, Wong Shou Ning, Shazana Mokhtar Prolonged lockdowns and an economy in neutral may have sent more than 600,000 households from the M40 income group into the bottom B40 category. BFM 89.9 - https://www.bfm.my/podcast/morning-run/morning-brief/is-malaysia-losing-its-middle-class
Middle class money problems will hurt too, economists warn
12 June 2021
Calvin Cheng was quoted in MalaysiaNow article. By Ahmad Mustakim Zulkifli - 12 June 2021 A drop in the spending power of the M40 will have repercussions for the local economy although they may not need as much assistance as the B40. Economists have warned of a trickle-down effect on society if the financial woes of…
Fiscal size matters (Pt. 2): Permerkasa Plus and Malaysia’s economic stimulus packages
01 June 2021
On 31 May 2021, on the eve of the implementation of the Full MCO, the Malaysian government announced the RM40 billion Permerkasa Plus assistance package. This article explores the main initiatives under Permerkasa Plus, provides a stocktake of past economic stimulus packages since the start of 2020, and investigates the potential for more forceful fiscal action. Download as PDF…
Govt has means to provide stimulus package, say experts
31 May 2021
By Ragananthini Vethasalam - 31 May 2021 Calvin Cheng was quoted in The Malaysian Insight article. THE government must come up with a “large” economic aid package to help businesses and individuals who would otherwise be at risk of losing their livelihood as the country prepares to enter a fresh round of full lockdown, said…
SPEAK UP! Hosted by SRDC: Wages and Employability
28 May 2021
SPEAK UP! Hosted by SRDC: Wages and Employability featuring Calvin Cheng SPEAK UP! Organised by University Putra Malaysia Students’ Affairs Division, in collaboration with Serdang Royals Debate Club (SRDC) and titled “A Conversation on Wages and Employability”, explored the fundamentals of the economic state of our country. Key points of the discussion included the issues…
Youth in Peril: the unequal impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on Malaysian workers
27 May 2021
Presentation by: Calvin Cheng Date: 27 May 2021 Presented at an online forum hosted by University Putra Malaysia’s Bahagian Hal Ehwal Pelajar, titled “A Conversation on Wages and Employability”, the presentation features updated and extended research from his 1 April Presentation titled “Pushed to the Margins: the unequal impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on Malaysian…
BFM Podcast: Economic vs health trade-offs: protecting Malaysian workers and households in a lockdown
24 May 2021
Produced by: Sim Wie Boon Presented by: Wong Shou Ning, Philip See Putrajaya announced new and tighter restrictions in redoubled efforts to cut the spread of Covid-19 with reduced working hours and a shift for more to work from home. Analyst Calvin Cheng considers the economic impacts and what needs to be done to support…
Malaysia’s Youth in Peril
01 May 2021
The impacts of the pandemic on the youth and its implications for Malaysian economy, society and politics By: Calvin Cheng and Bridget Welsh An original version of this article was first published on MalaysiaKini Download as PDF Young Malaysians are under siege from multiple fronts. COVID-19 has created a perfect storm of economic, social, and…
When does a recession look like a recession?
20 April 2021
While many have been devastated by the sweeping impacts of the pandemic—others are redirecting travel budgets into increased spending on shopping, dining, and entertainment. Download as PDF It is 3pm on a Tuesday at The Gardens, a high-end shopping mall in Kuala Lumpur and already, a small line is snaking around the entrance of Louis…
Experts: Fresh grads’ pay as low as RM1,000 a systemic problem, can’t just blame Covid-19 pandemic
15 April 2021
by Ida Lim and Keertan Ayamany, 15 Apr 2021 KUALA LUMPUR, April 15 — Low earnings for Malaysian fresh graduates was a long-standing issue due to the lack of skilled and high-paying jobs in the country and not caused entirely by the Covid-19 pandemic, said analysts. They disagreed with the government’s assertion that the growing proportion…
BFM Podcast: Has the pandemic created more jobs?
05 April 2021
Produced by: Kelvin Yee Presented by: Lee Chwi Lynn, Sharmilla Ganesan According to the Malaysian Employer's Federation (MEF), there are currently more jobs than there are job seekers. This podcast takes a look at the possible factors behind the numbers, looking at the distributional impacts of the COVID crisis on Malaysian workers, and whether this signals a…
Pushed to the Margins: the unequal impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on Malaysian workers
01 April 2021
Presentation by: Calvin Cheng Date: 1 April 2021 Presented at an online ISIS Forum titled “Fighting the inequality pandemic: COVID-19 and its economic impacts on marginalised worker groups” and presents updated and extended research from the November 2020 ISIS Malaysia Policy Brief Issue #07-20 “Pushed to the Margins”. Combing through a wide range of labour force…
Pandemic Economics: The Malaysian economy and economic responses to COVID-19
18 March 2021
Presentation by: Calvin Cheng Date: 18 March 2021 Presented at: SIRIM Virtual Business Growth Seminar This presentation takes a look at what has happened in the Malaysian economy one year since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia, specifically looking at the pandemic's impacts on GDP growth, trade and labour markets. The presentation considers…
BFM PODCAST: In crisis, better to include than exclude?
08 February 2021
Produced by: Sim Wie Boon Presented by: Lyn Mak, Noelle Lim, Roshan Kanesan A poll conducted by the USCI Poll Research Centre showed almost half of the respondents in the T20 income group used their i-Sinar withdrawal to invest in gold and stocks. This has raised the question of whether i-Sinar is truly effective in…
Prospects and risks for Malaysia’s economy in 2021
05 February 2021
A version of this article was originally published on Malaysiakini As a resurgence of COVID-19 cases and the return of strict movement restrictions in most states continue to dampen economic activity, the outlook for Malaysia’s economic growth is beginning to look increasingly grim. A confluence of factors, both external and domestic, threaten to derail the…
Fiscal size matters: the PERMAI assistance package and Malaysia's economic response to COVID-19
20 January 2021
On 18 January 2021, a week into the Movement Control Order for most states in Malaysia, the government announced the RM15 billion ‘Perlindungan Ekonomi dan Rakyat Malaysia’ (Permai) Assistance Package. Being the fourth major stimulus package since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, what does this Permai package include? How does it compare to previous…
Pushed to the margins: The unequal impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on marginalised Malaysian workers
30 November 2020
Key takeaways Women, youth, and lower-educated workers have borne the brunt of the immediate negative employment impacts of the COVID-19 crisis, while mostly being left out of the partial recovery that followed. Despite women only making up 39 percent of all employed workers in Malaysia, they made up nearly 2 out of 3 of the…
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP): What this means for ASEAN and Malaysia
17 November 2020
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement (FTA) was signed on 15 November 2020 at the 2020 ASEAN Summit. The RCEP trade agreement comprises 15 member countries: all 10 ASEAN member states (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam), and 5 of ASEAN’s existing FTA partners (Australia, China,…
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP): What this means for ASEAN and Malaysia
17 November 2020
By Dr Juita Mohamad Fellow Economics, Trade & Regional Integration juita.mohamad@isis.org.my Calvin Cheng Analyst Economics, Trade & Regional Integration calvin.ckw@isis.org.my Download as PDF 1.0 Introduction and background T he Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement (FTA) was signed on 15 November 2020 at the 2020 ASEAN Summit. The RCEP trade agreement comprises 15…
Budget 2021: a Quick Look
11 November 2020
The 2021 Budget, along with 2021 Fiscal Outlook and Revenue Estimates was proposed by the Finance Minister on 6 November 2020. This article takes a quick look at the federal government’s fiscal position and growth projections, along with some initiatives in the Budget related to social assistance, TVET, digitalisation, and automation. Download as PDF By…
Budget 2021: a Quick Look
11 November 2020
The 2021 Budget, along with 2021 Fiscal Outlook and Revenue Estimates was proposed by the Finance Minister on 6 November 2020. This article takes a quick look at the federal government’s fiscal position and growth projections, along with some initiatives in the Budget related to social assistance, TVET, digitalisation, and automation. Download as PDF By…
The Sabah Crisis
25 October 2020
Article by Bridget Welsh and Calvin Cheng A version of this article was originally published on Malaysiakini Download as PDF Yesterday, Sabah's Conditional Movement Control Order (CMCO) was extended until November 9 – making it over a month that the state will face serious hardship as its citizens struggle to get the virus under control.…
Pandemic Economics: Impacts of COVID-19 on the Malaysian economy
08 October 2020
Presentation by: Calvin Cheng Date: 8 October 2020 Presented at: 2020 Research Institutes Network (RIN) Online Workshop Series on COVID-19 Download Presentation Slide (PDF)
Trends in Malaysia's Future of Work
30 September 2020
Presentation by: Calvin Cheng with Harris Zainul Date: 30 September 2020 Presented at: Network of ASEAN-China Think Tanks (NACT) working group discussion on "Future of Labour in ASEAN and China: Challenges and Responses". Download Presentation Slide (PDF)
Will PENJANA Revive The Economy?
05 June 2020
Produced by: Hezril Asyraaf Presented by: Lee Chwi Lynn We take a first look at the RM35 billion worth Penjana economic recovery plan, and discuss if it has what it takes to address the economic challenges brought by Covid-19. BFM 89.9 - https://www.bfm.my/podcast/evening-edition/evening-edition/will-penjana-revive-the-economy
We’re already in a global recession: here's what we can do
18 May 2020
Download as PDF For those still unsure, let’s be clear: we are currently already knee-deep in a global recession. All around the world, lockdown measures, disruptions in global supply chains, and a pervasive sense of uncertainty have stifled the global economy and destroyed global trade. In fact, Bloomberg Economics’ global GDP tracker suggests that the…
Malaysia’s slick politics of oil
10 May 2020
The deal announced last week between the state of Sarawak, Petronas and the federal government reflects pragmatic choices on all sides – as Sarawak accepted the legitimacy of the 1974 Petroleum Development Act (PDA) and agreed to a sizeable payment of RM2 billion for the payment of state sales tax on petroleum products. Both Sarawak Chief Minister…
On the Unemployed Frontline: Malaysia’s Youth and Covid-19
18 April 2020
Article by Bridget Welsh and Calvin Cheng first appeared on MalaysiaKini on 18 April 2020 Download as PDF While we rightly think of vulnerable communities as the poor, there is another form of insecurity being shaped during Covid-19: the young people who are on the frontline of the economic effects of this deepening crisis. Across…
Economics of a Global Pandemic: Malaysian impacts and responses
10 April 2020
Presentation by Calvin Cheng Date 10 April 2020 Venue REFSA webinar These slides were presented at a REFSA webinar titled “Flattening the Recession Curve: Saving SMEs and Preserving Jobs” on 10 April 2020. The presentation leverages on latest DOSM survey data to assess the impacts of the COVID19 crisis on Malaysian businesses and workers, and…
The economics of a coronavirus pandemic
05 April 2020
The outbreak of COVID-19 in addition to movement control measures will have a devastating impact on the Malaysian economy. A large, decisive, two-stage economic policy response can help to safeguard Malaysian livelihoods. The new SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes the disease COVID-19, first arrived on Malaysian shores on 25 January 2020. A month later in February,…
Making the invisible visible: Faces of poverty in Malaysia
05 April 2020
Article by Bridget Welsh and Calvin Cheng first appeared on MalaysiaKini on 4 April 2020 Download as PDF COMMENT | For many, the movement control order (MCO) is one full of stark choices, even life and death as people go hungry, being evicted and physically in pain. Let’s start with their stories. Please meet the following…
Evaluating the BPN/BSH cash transfers in the Prihatin stimulus package
02 April 2020
Download as PDF The PN administration announced the Prihatin economic stimulus package (Pakej Ransangan Ekonomi Prihatin Raykat) on 28 March 2020, exactly one month after the first stimulus package was announced in February. Combined with the previous stimulus, the total Prihatin package is worth RM250 billion. Out of the total RM250 billion package, an estimated…
COVID-19 in Malaysia: Economic Impacts & Fiscal Responses
26 March 2020
Views expressed in this article is the opinion of the author, and does not necessarily reflect the view of the Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) Malaysia and the other individuals/organisations cited Updated 26/03/2020 Download as PDF Key takeaways This pandemic will have devastating effects on the Malaysian economy from both external factors (global…
Trump’s trade deal poses new dangers to Southeast Asia
17 February 2020
After two years of alternating between tense escalation and fleeting periods of calm, the United States and China reached a preliminary phase one trade deal in December 2019. Government spokespersons in both countries promptly cheered the signing of the agreement — but observers around the world remain a little more circumspect. The primary achievement of the phase…
THE MALAYSIAN ECONOMY: ONE DECADE IN REVIEW
06 February 2020
“The Malaysian economy has developed dramatically over the past decade, from 2009-2019. Here’s just how much things have changed, in 11 charts--from growth to exports, to wages and incomes—and what some challenges are for the coming decade.”
The Malaysian Economy: One Decade in Review
05 February 2020
Download Infographic The Malaysian Economy: One Decade in Review How the Malaysian economy has changed over the last decade in 11 charts Photo: Image by Walkerssk from Pixabay Graphic design by Ridzwuan Rosli As we enter February 2020, it is perhaps a good time to pause and take stock: how have the structure and nature of the Malaysian…
Trading Troubles: The US-China trade tensions and its impacts on Malaysia and the region
16 January 2020
Trade wars can have widespread negative impacts on the global economy, weighing down on global growth and investment, while increasing uncertainty and market volatility. How will Malaysia and her regional peers fare in the ongoing US-China trade conflict? Far from being a month of quiet introspection, December 2019 has instead proven to be a maelstrom…
Old troubles in the new decade
14 January 2020
A version of article was first published in the New Straits Times on 14 January 2019 under the title “Many Hurdles Amid Great Growth” BY many measures, the Malaysian economy has made tremendous strides over the last ten years. Real GDP is estimated to be 1.7 times larger now compared to at the start…
Youth Unemployment in Malaysia & the Region
10 January 2020
This article was first published in the Japan Economic Foundation (JEF) Japan SPOTLIGHT January/February 2020 Issue. Full Issue: https://www.jef.or.jp/jspotlight/latestissue/ Article Link: https://www.jef.or.jp/journal/pdf/229th_Special_Article.pdf Context In recent decades, world governments have been increasingly recognizing that high levels of youth unemployment can have dire and wide-ranging impacts on global economic development. A large body of evidence suggests that being unemployed…
Youth Unemployment in Malaysia & the Region
10 January 2020
This article was first published in the Japan Economic Foundation (JEF) Japan SPOTLIGHT January/February 2020 Issue. Full Issue: https://www.jef.or.jp/jspotlight/latestissue/ Article Link: https://www.jef.or.jp/journal/pdf/229th_Special_Article.pdf Context In recent decades, world governments have been increasingly recognizing that high levels of youth unemployment can have dire and wide-ranging impacts on global economic development. A large body of evidence suggests that being unemployed…
Going beyond the ballot box
18 December 2019
BY most measures, democracy is thriving in Malaysia. Nonetheless, triumphs in voter turnout and youth suffrage notwithstanding, it is important to remember that democratic participation does not end at the ballot box once every four or five years. It goes beyond that, and it needs to be emphasised that everyone has a day-to-day stake in…
The US-China trade conflict: Overview, impacts, and responses
17 December 2019
Presentation by Calvin Cheng Date 17 December 2019 Venue Conference Room, ISIS Malaysia This presentation was presented as part of the ISIS Malaysia-CASS Roundtable on Malaysia-China relations on 16 December 2019 at the Institute of Strategic & International Studies (ISIS) Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur. The presentation provides an overview of the recent macro conditions…
BFM PODCAST: RCEP Goes Ahead without India
06 November 2019
Presented by: Lyn Mak, Julian Ng, Wong Shou Ning India finally got off the fence to firmly in the No side for RCEP. Calvin Cheng, Research Fellow at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia thinks this is still OK because the grouping still has a sizable GDP and the door remains open to India.…
BFM PODCAST: THE SOCIAL RETURN OF SUBSIDIES
13 October 2019
Presented by: Lyn Mak, Wong Shou Ning A number of new initiatives were proposed under Budget 2020, including an expansion of the Bantuan Sara Hidup programme and details of a new fuel subsidy. For a dive into this, we speak to Calvin Cheng about the long-term effect of subsidies, and how we wean ourselves off them. BFM 89.9 - https://www.bfm.my/podcast/morning-run/morning-brief/the-social-return-of-subsidies…
BFM PODCAST: TRADE WAR GAINERS AND LOSERS IN MALAYSIA
08 October 2019
Produced by: Noelle Lim Presented by: Noelle Lim Calvin Cheng, Researcher at the Economics, Trade and Regional Integration division of the Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS), examines the impact of the US-China trade war on Malaysia and whether it’s fair to compare Malaysia and Vietnams’ economies. Global supply chains have changed and we should instead…
The US-China trade conflict and its potential impacts on Malaysia: Have we benefited from shifts in US import demand?
04 October 2019
Presentation by Calvin Cheng Date 4 October 2019 Time 3:00pm Venue Conference Room, ISIS Malaysia This presentation will update and expand upon material from a recent ISIS Malaysia policy brief titled "The US-China trade war: has Malaysia benefited from shifts in US import demand?". The first part of this presentation will explore major events…
Economic growth stifled
03 October 2019
IT has been more than two years since the United States first launched investigations into China’s trade and intellectual property. Since then, four different rounds of US tariffs have been slapped on Chinese goods, with a fifth round due to come into effect on Oct 15. By the time this fifth round of tariffs is…
The US-China Trade War: Is Malaysia benefiting from “diversions” in US import demand?
30 September 2019
On 6 July 2018, the Trump administration imposed thefirst1 round of tariffs (List 1) on US$34 billion worth of Chinese imports amid allegations of China’s unfair trade practices related to intellectual property (IP). Subsequently, over the course of 2018, two more rounds of US tariffs were applied—on US$16 billion worth of Chinese goods (List 2)…
Belt and Road Initiative: Perspectives from Malaysia
03 September 2019
"Belt and Road Initiative: Perspectives from Malaysia Presented at the 5th Workshop for Asia Pacific Young Scholars, 3rd September 2019 at the China Institute of International Studies in Beijing, China." Download Presentation Slide (PDF)
Bantuan Sara Hidup (BSH)
29 August 2019
Bantuan Sara Hidup (BSH), the national cash transfer program formerly known as BR1M, has undergone many changes since its introduction in 2012. In 2018, it was changed yet again, with a new benefit structure that took into account variations in household size. Its proponents argue that cash transfer programs have beneficial impacts on low-income household–while…
Is Malaysia benefitting from the US–China trade war?
14 August 2019
It has been almost a year since the first round of US tariffs were imposed on US$34 billion worth of Chinese imports. Since then, the United States has imposed two additional rounds of tariffs on China, currently covering a total of US$250 billion worth of Chinese goods. China retaliated by levying its own tariffs on…
Debt & Despair
13 May 2019
In a Thursday evening press conference on 24 May 2018, Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng confirmed that government debt and liabilities at end-2017 was in excess of RM1 trillion. Within hours, Malaysians all over the country dutifully resumed a longstanding national tradition: complaining about the state of public finances. Economists were quick to point out…
Not the Last Samurai
24 March 2019
EARLIER this month, the Finance Ministry announced that the government had successfully priced 200 billion yen (RM7.3 billion) worth of Samurai bonds at a coupon rate of 0.53 per cent. These bonds will be fully guaranteed by the state-owned Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) at an extra cost of 0.1 per cent, and are…
Deflation in Malaysia: What does it mean for the Malaysian economy?
07 March 2019
Last week, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicated that consumer inflation was -0.7 percent lower in January compared to a year ago. We’ve entered deflation territory; the first time this has happened since the 2009 Global Financial Crisis. Of course, this wasn’t entirely an unexpected event—median Bloomberg consensus estimates got pretty close, forecasting a -0.4…
Outlook for the Global Economy in the Next Two Years
17 December 2018
Paper presented by Firdaos Rosli and Calvin Cheng Download PDF
Strategies for Enhancing the Japan-ASEAN Economic Partnership
27 November 2018
Paper presented by Dato’ Steven CM Wong at 35th Anniversary Conference of the Malaysian Association for American Studies (MAAS) Download PDF
Growing risks to the Asean economy
17 November 2018
IN 1997, the devaluation of the Thai baht marked the start of a crisis that decimated many Asian economies. By the end of 1998, Asean-5’s (Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines) gross domestic product was US$230 billion lower, setting the Asean economy back to 1992 levels. Today, it has been more than 20 years…
Making BR1M Work
13 September 2018
WHILE the Pakatan Harapan government has promised to continue the 1Malaysia People’s Aid (BR1M) unconditional cash transfer programme for at least another year, its future seems highly uncertain. Recent media statements from Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad as well as Economic Affairs Minister Datuk Seri Azmin Ali indicate that the government intends to gradually…
Consumption Taxation Will Eventually Return
23 May 2018
Tax (GST) would be zero-rated effective June 1, partially fulfilling a promise made by the new administration on the campaign trail. While GST has yet to be fully abolished — it is currently merely zero-rated — the reality is that the future will necessitate a steady and sustainable source of revenue. As such, even if…
Cash programmes and poverty alleviation
19 December 2017
MANY weapons have been wielded in the war against poverty. In ancient Rome, the first ever documented social assistance programme, or alimenta in Latin, provided food and subsidised education for orphans and poor children. In modern times, more novel initiatives such as the microfinance movement pioneered by Muhammad Yunus in the 1980s, and the subsequent…
Don’t Expect 2018 Budget to be Panacea to All of Nation’s Problems
26 October 2017
The 2018 Budget, set to be tabled in Parliament by Prime Minister Najib Razak on Oct 27 (Friday), will be the last before Parliament is dissolved for the 14th general election. The budget will attempt to combine fiscal responsibility — consistent with the federal government’s commitment to narrow the budget deficit — together with the…